herr_0berst: (Default)
Нассим Талеб на линии:

[...] Most people don’t understand how to handle uncertainty. They shy away from small risks, and without realizing it, they embrace the big, big risk. Businessmen who are consistently successful have the exact opposite attitude: Make all the mistakes you want, just make sure you’re going to be there tomorrow.
herr_0berst: (arbeit)


Чёта прям под настроение сегодня. А тут ещё Нассим наш Талеб "фразами кидается"™:

[...] It isn't natural to know *when* your vacation/weekend or pleasurable moment terminates.
Modern life creates Sunday night blues.
Flâneuring, thanks to its beneficial uncertainty, removes such a specter.
herr_0berst: (Default)
Нассим наш Талеб разразился очередным текстом, в котором, что твой Шура Балаганов, довольно толково, хотя и монотонно, рассказал содержание массовой брошюры "Мятеж на "Очакове" эргодической гипотезы, в пух и прах разнёс известную работу Томаса Пикетти, настаивая при этом на неверном написании фамилии последнего, и выдал некую версию, частично объясняющую недавний успех Трампа:

[...] There is something respectable in losing a billion dollars, provided it is your own money.
herr_0berst: (arbeit)
Нассим наш Талеб разразился очередным текстом. Длинно, но, IMHO, небезынтересно:

How To Legally Own Another Person: The domestication of employees
[ by Nassim Taleb | 2016 April 5 | via Evonomics ]

In its early phase, as the church was starting to get established in Europe, there was a group of itinerant people called the gyrovagues. They were gyrating and roaming monks without any affiliation to any institution. Theirs was a free-lance (and ambulatory) variety of monasticism, and their order was sustainable as the members lived off begging and from the good graces of townsmen who took interest in them. It is a weak form of sustainability, as one can hardly call sustainable a group of a people with vows of celibacy: they cannot grow organically and would need continuous enrollment. But their members managed to survive thanks to help from the population, which provided them with food and temporary shelter.

Sometimes around the fifth century, they started disappearing –they are now extinct. The gyrovagues were unpopular with the church, banned by the council of Chalcedon in the Fifth Century, then again by the second council of Nicaea about three hundred years later. In the West, Saint Benedict of Nurcia, their greatest detractor, favored a more institutional brand of monasticism and ended up prevailing with his rules that codified the activity, with a hierarchy and strong supervision by an abbot. For instance, Benedict’s rulesiii, put together in a sort of instruction manual, stipulate that a monk’s possessions should be in the hands of the abbot (Rule 33) and Rule 70 bans angry monks from hitting other monks.

Why were they banned? They were, simply, totally free. They were financially free, and secure, not because of their means but because of their wants. Ironically by being beggars, they had the equivalent of "fuck you money", the one can get more easily by being at the lowest rung than by being member of the income dependent class.

Complete freedom is the last thing you would want if you have an organized religion to run. Total freedom is also a very, very bad thing for you if you have a firm to run, so this chapter is about the question of employees and the nature of the firm and other institutions.

Benedict’s instruction manual aims explicitly at removing any hint of freedom in the monks under the principles of: stabilitate sua et conversatione morum suorum et oboedientia — “stability, conversion of manners, and obedience”. And of course monks are put through a probation period of one year to see if they are effectively obedient.

In short, every organization wants a certain number of people associated with it to be deprived of a certain share of their freedom. How do you own these people? First, by conditioning and psychological manipulation; second by tweaking them to have some skin in the game, forcing them to have something significant to lose if they were to disobey authority –something hard to do with gyrovague beggars who flaunted scorn of material possessions. In the orders of the mafia, things are simple: made men (that is, ordained) can be wacked if the capo suspects lack of allegiance, with a transitory stay in the trunk of a car –and a guaranteed presence of the boss at their funerals. For others professions, skin in the game come in more subtle form.

Ironically, you could do better having an employee than a slave –and this held even in ancient times when slavery was present.

далее -- очень-очень много букв )
herr_0berst: (arbeit)

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto

Ничто человеческое не чуждо и «избегающему журналистов» Талебу[wiki] -- в длиннейшем интервью пиар его новой книги :)
Nassim Taleb: my rules for life
Carole Cadwalladr [ via The Observer/The Guardian: Saturday, 24 November 2012 ]
The controversial thinker who predicted the 2008 financial crisis hates bankers, academics and journalists. He's also a man of mystery – he eats like a caveman, and goes to bed at 8pm. We took the risk of meeting him

How much does Nassim Taleb dislike journalists? Let me count the ways. "An erudite is someone who displays less than he knows; a journalist or consultant the opposite." "This business of journalism is about pure entertainment, not the search for the truth." "Most so-called writers keep writing and writing with the hope, some day, to find something to say." He disliked them before, but after he predicted the financial crash in his 2007 book, The Black Swan, a book that became a global bestseller, his antipathy reached new heights. He has dozens and dozens of quotes on the subject, and if that's too obtuse for us non-erudites, his online home page puts it even plainer: "I beg journalists and members of the media to leave me alone."

He's not wildly keen on appointments either. In his new book, Antifragile, he writes that he never makes them because a date in the calendar "makes me feel like a prisoner".

Nassim Taleb
Nassim Taleb in Brooklyn, New York this month. Photograph: Mike McGregor for the Observer
So imagine, if you will, how keenly he must be looking forward to the prospect of a pre-arranged appointment to meet me, a journalist. I approach our lunch meeting, at the Polytechnic Institute of New York University where he's the "distinguished professor of risk engineering", as one might approach a sleeping bear: gingerly. And with a certain degree of fear. And yet there he is, striding into the faculty lobby in a jacket and Steve Jobs turtleneck ("I want you to write down that I started wearing them before he did. I want that to be known."), smiling and effusive.

First, though, he has to have his photo taken. He claims it's the first time he's allowed it in three years, and has allotted just 10 minutes for it, though in the end it's more like five. "The last guy I had was a fucking dick. He wanted to be artsy fartsy," he tells the photographer, Mike McGregor. "You're OK."

Being artsy fartsy, I will learn, is even lower down the scale of Nassim Taleb pet hates than journalists. But then, being contradictory about what one hates and despises and loves and admires is actually another key Nassim Taleb trait.

In print, the hating and despising is there for all to see: he's forever having spats and fights. When he's not slagging off the Nobel prize for economics (a "fraud"), bankers ("I have a physical allergy to them") and the academic establishment (he has it in for something he calls the "Soviet-Harvard illusion"), he's trading blows with Steven Pinker ("clueless"), and a random reviewer on Amazon, who he took to his Twitter stream to berate. And this is just in the last week.

And yet here he is, chatting away, surprisingly friendly and approachable. the rest of the interview under the cut )

P.S. Если кому, паче чаяния, интересно, то уже есть перевод интервью на русский [ лежит на FTinvest.ru ], правда, не очень, IMHO, качественный.
herr_0berst: (phystech)
never ask a man if he is from Sparta: If he were, he would have let you know such an important fact — and if he were not, you could hurt his feelings.

вычитано в Fooled by Randomness by N.Taleb[wiki]

К чему я это? Сегодня вечером разговорился в малознакомой компании с парнем чуть старше себя, мужик между делом обронил несколько весьма специфических жаргонных словечек, что дало основания предположить, что он с Физтеха, о чём я хотел было его спросить, но подумал и... не стал.

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